Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Wekk 9 Top 25

1. Texas
2. Penn State
3. Alabama
4. Texas Tech
5. Oklahoma
6. Florida
7. Oklahoma State
8. Georgia
9. Southern Cal
10. Boise State
11. Utah
12. TCU
13. Florida State
14. Tulsa
15. Ball State
16. Missouri
17. Minnesota
18. Ohio State
19. BYU
20. North Carolina
21. Michigan State
22. LSU
23. Virginia Tech
24. Maryland
25. Cal

Others receiving votes South Florida 22, West Virginia 15, West Virginia 15, Kansas 10, Virginia 8, Miami 5, Boston College 3, Louisville 3, Georgia Tech 1

Monday, October 13, 2008

And so it begins...

Coaching victim #1 has been announced and five years late it turns out to be Tommy Bowden. Clemson has always had talent and they always manage to find ways to lose games. It finally caught up to Bowden as Clemson entered this season with higher expectations than ever in his tenure as coach. The early season blowout loss to Bama put the writing on the wall and losses to Maryland and Wake Forest were the final nails in the coffin. By making this move first Clemson does put themselves in the best position to find a top of the line replacement. With other top programs (Tennessee and Auburn) potentially looking for new coaches this might be a huge advantage. Ultimately this will cost Clemson a ton of money as Bowden signed a huge extension prior to this season. It appears they should have let him go to Arky and started fresh. There are some definite top candidates out there this year and the market will be very competitive.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Week 7 Games of the Week

It's nut cutting time in college football. Out of conference fluff has ended, and most teams had an easy opening week of conference play last week. But now, the first of about three Separation Saturdays is upon us. The Big XII and SEC picture will be shaped this week, with somebody left scrambling to stay in the NC hunt (or in Florida's case, a loss eliminates them). So let's look into the crystal football and see how things play out this week.

ACC
Clemson at # 20 Wake Forest (-2.5): While I was never high on Clemson, the fact remains they still have a shot at winning the ACC and getting to a BCS bowl. If they lose tonight however, that dream is all but over. The Tigers can't afford to fall into a 1-2 hole in ACC play. This game will most likely decide the ACC Atlantic division. Clemson's plan is simple: feed Spiller and Davis. But they have no always executed that plan effectively with shaky O-Line play. Wake's run D is #15 in the nation so it's been solid, and is good enough to make Clemson pass. And this is where the game will be won or lost. The Wake pass D has been spotty so expect Clemson QB Cullen Harper to make enough plays to keep Wake off balance. Plus the Clemson D is second in the ACC in total D, so expect them to give a Wake team that only averages 27 points a game a few problems. Clemson 24, Wake Forest 20

Big XII
#6 Texas vs. #1 Oklahoma (-7) at Dallas: This is the most anticipated Red River Shootout since 2002. Both teams come in crushing the competition at a pace of 35.8 points per game, both teams have outstanding quarterback play, and both teams are hungry to stay in the Big XII and national title chase. The winner of this game has played in 10 of the 12 Big XII title games, and appeared 3 of the last 5 BCS title games. In other words, the stakes are high. So who wins? On paper OU has more talent. Quarterback Sam Bradford has an abundance of weapons at his disposal including RB DeMarco Murray, WRs Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson, and TE Jermaine Gresham. The defense, particularly in the secondary, has been stronger than even most OU fans expected. Under DC Will Mushchamp, the same can be said about the Longhorn D. They are leading the nation in sacks, and DL Brian Orakpo is 3rd nationally in sack. Offensively, Colt McCoy is have a Heisman worthy season. He is 4th in the nation in passing efficiency, and is Texas' leading rusher. The biggest advantage between the teams appears in the air. The Horns pass defence ranks 100 nationally, and they have not seen anything near the passing attack OU provides. Expect Sam Bradford to have a big day, and the Sooners to stay atop the polls. OU 35, TX 24

Big East
Rutgers (+7.5) at Cincinnati: Slow weekend in the Big East, but their weekend will come. Only intrigue here is will Cincy win it's conference opener to set up some key matchups against UCONN, USF, and WVU in the next 3 weeks? Expect the Bearcats to stay focused on this matchup, and beat a Rutgers team that is hurting in all aspects. CB Mike Mickens and the Cincinnati D will cause QB Mike Teel and Rutgers all kinds of problems. Cincinnati 30, Rutgers 14

Big Ten
#21 Michigan State (-1.5) at #23 Northwestern: I know everybody is all excited about Penn State at Wisconsin, but at this point MSU at NW has more impact on the Big 10 race. Both teams are undefeated in conference, so more is on the line in this one. NW has been surprisingly stingy on defense, giving up only 12 points per game. The Spartans have been good defensively as well, giving up 16 per game but have struggled against the better passing teams on their schedule (Cal and Indiana). This where Northwestern QB CJ Bacher can make or break this game. If he limits his turnovers, he gives his team a very good chance to win. The Wildcat D is good enough to at least contain Spartan RB Javon Ringer. He's going to get 40 touches no matter what, but if they limit his yards per touch they have a good shot because Brian Hoyer has not shown much through the air. So can Bacher throw the ball to the guys in the purple jerseys? I'm going to say he can, and the NW spread is effective enough to get a close home win. NW 23, MSU 21

Pac 10
Arizona (-7) at Stanford: Another game with slightly more importance that the game most are excited about (Arizona State at USC). Both teams have two conference wins (AZ 2-0; Stanford 2-1). A Cardinal upset puts the Pac 10 in chaos with a bunch of 1 loss teams; a 'Zona win puts the Wildcats in the driver's seat. I don't expect the upset here. Matter of fact, I think Mike Stoops is finally making his mark on the Wildcat program and has his team in a position to expect to win. Arizona QB Willie Tuitama is playing like a senior quarterback should, and the Arizon D has been stingy (15.2 PPG). The Cardinal D on the other hand is horrendous (27.7 PPG), and the offense isn't lighting it up either (23 PPG). The 'Cats roll, setting up a big matchup versus Cal (the other Pac undefeated team; idle this week) next week. Arizona 35, Stanford 17

SEC
#4 LSU (+6) at #12 Florida: Hate, thy name is LSU/Florida. As if there wasn't enough bad blood between these teams after last year (remember the Tebow cell phone incident) we now have LSU planning to take Tebow out. Ahhh, nothing like ESSSSSS EEEEEEE SSSEEEEEEE football. The Tigers will rely on the strong running game led by Charles Scott (133 YPG, 6TDs) to take the pressure of QB Jarrett Lee. Expect the Gators to load the box to apply pressure on the run game and Lee. Well all know about the Gators "O" led by Tebow and Percy Harvin, but the key will be the Gators D. The Gators D is third in the nation in turnover margin, and only gives up 11 points per game. If the Gator D plays up to snuff, don't expect Jarrett Lee to pass his second big road test. Florida 24 LSU 17

Mid Major
TCU (-15.5) at Colorado State: Two undefeated teams in MWC play look to stay in the race with Utah and BYU. The Horned Frogs bring the nations #1 defense to Hughes Stadium, and they'll need it against a pass happy Rams attack. The Rams however give up 30 points a game and TCU averages 246 yards rushing per game. So expect the Rams passing game to be a moot point, as TCU will keep them off the field and stuff them when necessary. TCU 31, CSU 14

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Week 7 Top 25

1. Oklahoma
2. Missouri
3. Alabama
4. Penn State
4. LSU
6. Texas
7. Texas Tech
8. BYU
9. Southern Cal
10. Oklahoma State
11. Vanderbilt
12. Florida
13. Georgia
14. Utah
15. Boise State
16. Ohio State
17. Kansas
18. Virginia Tech
19. North Carolina
20. Wake Forest
21. Michigan State
22. Tulsa
23. Northwestern
24. Ball State
25. Illinois

Friday, October 3, 2008

Games of the Week, Week 6

Let's take a look at each "Game of the Week" in each BCS conference, and the best mid major game, and see how this national championship picture will continue to shape itself.

ACC
Florida State (+2) at Miami: Remember when this was the game of the year, with all sorts of NC implications on the line? Now it's just a battle of two teams hoping to get back in the wide open ACC race. Miami has shown flashes on offense behind QB Robert Marve, but not near enough consistency. FSU should be 4-0 as the defense has been fantastic and downright dominant at times. A 7 turnover performance against Wake is all holding the Noles back at this point. I'll take the better D in a game with so many QB questions. FSU 17 Miami 10

Big XII
#7 Texas Tech (-7) at Kansas State: Conference opener week in the Big XII, and strange things can happen. Especially with the big week in Big XII play coming up next week. Will teams be looking ahead? TTech has played absolutely nobody and while KSU isn't exactly the example of elite OOC scheduling, they did manage to squeeze in a BCS foe (38-29 loss to LVille). But at least TTech stopped some people, as KSU couldn't even do that against cupcake city. Still, TTech just tends to play poorly in these types of games, in North venues. Expect an upset and a ton of points. KSU 43 TTech 38

Big East
The best game the BE had to offer already happened, as Pitt upset South Florida at home. But since I didn't get anything up early enough Thursday Rutgers at West Virginia (-13.5) seems to be what's left. Both teams have struggled after losing key players from last year's teams, and in the case of WVU a coach to boot. The Rutgers pass offense has been way too interception prone, and the run game is simply not good enough to take the pressure off. WVU is at home and they have Pat White. Expect WVU to be ready to roll for the conference opener. WVU 35 Rutgers 20

Big Ten
#14 Ohio State (-1) at #18 Wisconsin: After blowing a 19 point lead in Ann Arbor last week, the Badgers have to be feeling a bit disappointed. The Wolverine D turned up the heat in the second half and held PJ Hill to 70 yards rushing, and the Wisconsin passing game couldn't step up. Ohio State on the other hand appears to be finding it's groove behind freshman QB Terrell Pryor and the return of RB Beanie Wells. I expect the OSU D to keep Hill and the Wisconsin O in check much like Michigan was able to (for a half anyway), and get the victory in Camp Randall. OSU 28 Wisconsin 17

Pac 10
#23 Oregon (+16) at #8 USC: Despite being down to 4th string QB Justin Roper, the Ducks have been explosive on offense managing 47 points and 532 yards per game. The Trojans are reeling after being dominated at the line of scrimmage (on both sides of the ball) by Oregon State just 8 days ago, and the run game looks inconsistent. The Trojan defense in still capable of stopping anybody, but has been susceptible to good spread offenses in recent years. Of note, USC is 10-5 in their last 15 Pac 10 games. It appears the fear factor may be wearing off in Southern California. I don't expect the Ducks to win, but they'll make in interesting. USC 31 UO 27

SEC
#13 Auburn (-4) at #19 Vanderbilt: Yep you read that right, the best game in the SEC this week involves Lionel Richie's former band. Vandy sits atop the SEC East with a 2-0 record, and a playmaking QB in Chris Nickson. But don't be fooled, Vandy has been outgained in 3 of the 4 games they have played. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, I guess. As for Auburn, where to begin. My pre-season #3 team is lost on "O" and still unsettled at QB after 4 games. But they can pretty much get a stop whenever, which doesn't spell good news for a young vandy O-Line. Auburn 23 Vandy 9

Mid Major
Rice at Tulsa (-15.5): A Conference USA battle against two of the highest scoring teams in the country. Lost in all the BYU and Utah hype is a Tulsa team that is quietly 4-0 and can score on anybody. This Tulsa team just may be the last mid major standing when the BCS bids are passed out. Quarterback David Johnson has already accounted for 20 TDs and leads the nation in passer rating. Rice has a deadly QB-WR combo themselves, with QB Chase Clement tossing the rock to WR Jarrett Dillard. Dillard has caught 10 of Clements' 14 TD passes this season. Expect a real barn burner in this one with Tulsa staying on the BCS path. Tulsa 52 Rice 44

Upset Alert
#3 Mizzou (-10.5) at Nebraska: You may want to keep your eye on this one. Mizzou hasn't won at NU in over 30 years, and the Huskers are coming off a home loss to VaTech. So expect NU to be pretty pumped up to make a statement after blowing a chance to do so last week. Mizzou hasn't seen anything resembling a defense all year, and while NU isn't the 1985 Bears they have better athletes than anything Mizzou has faced and a coach in Bo Pelini that has stopped a few people in his day. It's been a loooong time since Mizzou played a team with a pulse (Illinois where they gave up 42 points), and they're coming off a bye so expect some dulness from the Tigers. This just looks like the perfect storm for another top 25 team to drop. NU 41 MU 31

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

The impact of last weekend...

What a weekend in college football. We'll see the ripple effects of last weekend throughout the rest of the season. A USC loss kicked things off and a dismantling of Georgia wrapped things up. In between all that happening a number of Top 10 teams fell as well.

Teams who benefited the most:

1) Alabama and LSU - The game in Baton Rogue between these two rivals looms large as the winner will be poised for a shot at a national title if they can remain unbeaten in conference. Even the loser of this game will still have a shot if no one goes undefeated this year. It's not inconceivable that a one loss SEC team end up in the big game.

2) Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri - A regular season triangle of games sets up a Big 12 title game in Kansas City. Texas plays both opponents but OU and Missouri dodge each other on the regular season slate this year. The OU/Texas winner will likely see Missouri in Kansas City with the winner of that game likley moving on the national title game as well.

3) USC - Ironically, USC losing first might have helped them. The Trojans will have a shot to play their way back in it, especially with the other struggles in the Top 10. If some other teams struggle then they could move back up.

The biggest loser of the weekend was by far Georgia. Voters will have a hard time erasing the memories of a 31 - 0 deficit at home out of their heads. It will take a miracle at this point for UGA to move back into serious conversations involving the national title game.

Coaching Shake Ups:

1) Syracuse - All signs are pointing that Greg Robinson is gone with Lane Kiffin's name being tossed around.

2) Washington - It looks like Willingham is out as well and Kiffin's name is being linked to this one also.

3) Tennessee - Fulmer won't be fired but he might resign at the end of this year. No names really tied to this one yet.

Top Coaching Candidates:

Bronco Mendenhall - BYU HC
Randy Edsell - UConn HC
Ron English - Louisville DC
Lane Kiffin - Former USC OC
Kevin Stelle - FSU Staff

Week 6 Top 25

1. Oklahoma (18)
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Penn State
5. Texas
6. Missouri
7. BYU
8. Texas Tech
9. South Florida
10. Southern Cal
11. Utah
12. Georgia
13. Florida
14. Auburn
15. Ohio State
16. Oklahoma State
17. Connecticut
18. Kansas
19. Vanderbilt
20. Boise State
21. Wisconsin
22. Oregon
22. Northwestern
24. Ball State
25. Kentucky

Others receiving votes: Tulsa 40, Michigan State 21, Wake Forest 16, Maryland 14, Arizona 8, Boston College 5, North Carolina 3, Cal 2, Notre Dame 1