University of Oklahoma freshman Josh Jarboe, considered a top 10 WR prospect, continues to makes waves. Unfortunately, these waves continue to be off the field. If you will recall, Jarboe was highly recruited out of Georgia's Cedar Grove High School. However he almost never made it Oklahoma's campus after his arrest for felony gun possession. The charges were eventually reduced to misdemeanors, and Jarboe was given two years probation and ordered to complete 80 hours of community service.
One would think after such hassles, Jarboe would not be recording videos about shooting people. On top of being a horrible rap( I must admit however, the "meat up on her grill" line made me chuckle), it does nothing to give me any confidence he learned anything through this legal process nor will make the most out of his second chance. Yeah, yeah I understand it's just a stupid rap (VERY stupid) and we all should probably have something better to do than dissect every move an 18 year old kid makes. But when he makes such moves for everybody to see you just have to wonder if the kid "gets it". At this point, it appears he doesn't.
I wish Josh the best and want to see him succeed on the football field. But more importantly, I want to see signs that Josh will succeed in life. I understand the gangster rap mentality is a part of the culture of a lot of today's kids. And despite the blame hip hop gets for a lot of problems in America, most kids just listen to the music and view it as entertainment and nothing more. And I don't expect Jarboe to stop listening to rap, or rapping, or whatever else after what happened. But I do expect Jarboe to be smarter about the things he does, and how he portrays himself. He should realize he is LUCKY not to be in jail, and rapping about the things that almost landed him in jail IN PUBLIC and RECORDING them is just not very bright. I understand he's 18 and immature, and perhaps eventually he will "get it". But damn, if almost going to jail doesn't help you "get it", doesn't make you understand you need to carry yourself differently and make better decisions, I'm not sure what can.
Update: Jarboe dismissed from team
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Can the Triple Option still work in Major Conference Football?
With Paul Johnson set to start his first season at a BCS school, many are wondering how the triple option will translate to that level of competition. Many older fans remember the days when Oklahoma and Nebraska dominated college football by mercilessly running the ball down the throats of their opponents with the option. Nebraska is the program that held on to it the longest but it died out at the BCS level when Solich was fired after the 2003 season. Since then it is a system that continues to hang on at the service academies and in lower divisions of football.
College football has changed a lot in the time since the triple option was last used at the top levels of the game. Defenses are now faster and defensive game plans are now more sophisticated. Despite these changes though, programs are still able to use the principles of the triple option to achieve success. At the end of the day, coaches want to get their players in position to make plays and the triple option can be very effective at doing that.
Wake Forest has risen from the depths of the ACC by using a misdirection based offense. Navy was able to achieve success with the triple option against BCS level competition as recently as two seasons ago. Urban Meyer uses the spread which has its roots in the option to great success and a national title at Florida. I remember Air Force using mis-direction to come within a point of beating Tennessee in Knoxville a couple years ago as well. These coaches have used the principles of the option to put their players in position to succeed and it has worked.
The option not only forces defenses to react to what the offense is doing but it can negate the speed advantages that defenses sometimes have. Additionally it allows you to control the clock and keep the other teams offense off the field. So few teams run the option anymore that it is tough for opponents to prepare against it. Obviously teams have specific play books but by and large most teams use standard formations from week to week. An option team popping up on the schedule in the middle of the season is a nightmare for opposing coaches. Adding top quality athletes into that mix makes it a very dangerous offense. It is for this reason that I think the option can work at Georgia Tech. Johnson will have access to running backs that he would have never been able to speak with at Navy. There are a number of running high school quarterbacks whose skill set will not translate well to many Division 1 programs. When Johnson finds the next Tommie Harris, the offense will really get going.
Though I see many positives with this offense, there are a couple of places where Georgia Tech could struggle. Quarterbacks in the option are generally not the best passers and if a team is able to stop the run it can completely shut the offense down. Another stumbling block is the way it changes recruiting. Top high school athletes want to attend a school where they can showcase their skills for NFL scouts. While the option is conducive for running backs to do this, it is not the same for wide receivers and quarterbacks. Georgia Tech will struggle to get talented wide receivers, especially with Mark Richt and Georgia right down the road in Athens. This problem is somewhat alleviated for quarterbacks because rarely do top high school option quarterbacks get recruited to play QB by top D-1 programs. Generally these players are recruited and converted to another position. Georgia Tech will have the ability to offer these kids the chance to continue at quarterback which will help them land some talent at that position.
The triple option returning to major college football has me a little more excited than normal entering this season. Though I think it will work for Georgia Tech, I doubt it will lead them to a national title. However, with the state of the ACC right now there is no reason it can't lead them to a conference title. The offense is just so hard to prepare for and Johnson will have top atheltes at the skill positions making the option work.
College football has changed a lot in the time since the triple option was last used at the top levels of the game. Defenses are now faster and defensive game plans are now more sophisticated. Despite these changes though, programs are still able to use the principles of the triple option to achieve success. At the end of the day, coaches want to get their players in position to make plays and the triple option can be very effective at doing that.
Wake Forest has risen from the depths of the ACC by using a misdirection based offense. Navy was able to achieve success with the triple option against BCS level competition as recently as two seasons ago. Urban Meyer uses the spread which has its roots in the option to great success and a national title at Florida. I remember Air Force using mis-direction to come within a point of beating Tennessee in Knoxville a couple years ago as well. These coaches have used the principles of the option to put their players in position to succeed and it has worked.
The option not only forces defenses to react to what the offense is doing but it can negate the speed advantages that defenses sometimes have. Additionally it allows you to control the clock and keep the other teams offense off the field. So few teams run the option anymore that it is tough for opponents to prepare against it. Obviously teams have specific play books but by and large most teams use standard formations from week to week. An option team popping up on the schedule in the middle of the season is a nightmare for opposing coaches. Adding top quality athletes into that mix makes it a very dangerous offense. It is for this reason that I think the option can work at Georgia Tech. Johnson will have access to running backs that he would have never been able to speak with at Navy. There are a number of running high school quarterbacks whose skill set will not translate well to many Division 1 programs. When Johnson finds the next Tommie Harris, the offense will really get going.
Though I see many positives with this offense, there are a couple of places where Georgia Tech could struggle. Quarterbacks in the option are generally not the best passers and if a team is able to stop the run it can completely shut the offense down. Another stumbling block is the way it changes recruiting. Top high school athletes want to attend a school where they can showcase their skills for NFL scouts. While the option is conducive for running backs to do this, it is not the same for wide receivers and quarterbacks. Georgia Tech will struggle to get talented wide receivers, especially with Mark Richt and Georgia right down the road in Athens. This problem is somewhat alleviated for quarterbacks because rarely do top high school option quarterbacks get recruited to play QB by top D-1 programs. Generally these players are recruited and converted to another position. Georgia Tech will have the ability to offer these kids the chance to continue at quarterback which will help them land some talent at that position.
The triple option returning to major college football has me a little more excited than normal entering this season. Though I think it will work for Georgia Tech, I doubt it will lead them to a national title. However, with the state of the ACC right now there is no reason it can't lead them to a conference title. The offense is just so hard to prepare for and Johnson will have top atheltes at the skill positions making the option work.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Rule Changes for the 2008 - 2009 Year
The NCAA recently revealed some of the rule changes agreed upon by the coaches this year. You might notice a college game feels a little bit more like an NFL game this year and it won't be for the money that college guys make this time. New rules include:
- 5 Yard Penalty for Horse Collar Tackle: This is a rule that the NFL previously added and one that I support. Defensive players can no longer grab an offensive player by the back neck of his jersey on a tackle. Purely a rule aimed at increasing player safety, my only complaint is that I would like to see it be at least a 10 yard penalty.
- New Clock Rules: Here is the other spot where you feel like you are watching an NFL game.
- 40 Second Play Clock: In most cases the play clock will now be set to 40 seconds and will begin running at the conclusion of the previous play.
- 25 Second Play Clock: The traditional 25 second play clock will only be used after timeouts, injuries, and penalties.
- Out of bounds Restart: In most cases the game clock will restart once the ball is placed on the field instead of when the ball is snapped. The only exceptions to this rule are in the last 2 minutes of the halves when it will start on the snap.
- Instant Replay Additions: A couple of new plays are now available for review:
- Fumble after whistle: Replay officials will now have the ability to replay these calls
- FG Kicks: Replay officials will now be able to review cases of above or below the crossbar as well as inside or outside the uprights.
- Coaches Challenge: Coaches will now receive 1 additional challenge if their first one is successful. It's important to note that every play is still reviewed though but coaches do still have the option to challenge.
- Automatic 15 Yard Face Mask Penalty: Gone are the days of referees having to make a judgment on the intent of the face mask penalty. This rule surprised me as I didn't think it was that hard of a determination. With players flying all over the place, incidental face mask penalties are bound to occur. In these such cases, there is no reason for it to be a 15 yard penalty. This rule feels like overkill to me.
Michigan's streak will not die in 2008
Rich Rodriguez leaving West Virginia for Michigan was a cluster of lawsuits, rumors, and contractual disputes. After months of going back and forth over a buyout clause, Rodriguez agreed to pay the $4 million owed to West Virginia.
Now that all the off field drama is behind us, it's time to start thinking about how well UM will fare in 2008. Michigan holds the current mark for consecutive bowl appearances. They are at 33 straight bowl appearances, and Michigan fans hope it doesn't end anytime soon. So will it? Nope, the streak won't end. Expect Michigan to be playing in December, regardless of the changes Rodriguez will bring to the table. I have few ideas why UM will fare well in 2008.
1. New blood: Lloyd Carr's time at Michigan was up, and truthfully it was probably up 3 years ago. But it really is not just about Lloyd Carr, after all he won an NC at Michigan in 1997 and won at least a share of the Big 10 title, five times. His record in his 13 seasons was 121-40 (.751), so it isn't like Lloyd was a flop. He was just a Michigan man, and Michigan needed to get away from that mold. Programs that refuse to break the mold tend to get stale. There is a fine line between keeping tradition alive, and refusing to evolve. Michigan was on the wrong side of that line, and the program needed to be shook up. Enter Rodriguez. New ideas, attitude, and renewed since of change is exactly what Michigan needed.
2. Shaun King: Everybody keeps talking about how Rodriguez's spread offense is a bad for the Michigan quarterbacks. Apparently it will be such a bad fit, Ryan Mallet transferred to Arkansas before even giving it a chance. Rodriguez needs a mobile QB to make his system work, I keep hearing. But I recall in 1998 a guy named Shaun King ran the spread under Rich Rodriguez, when the coach was the OC at Tulane. In1998, King set NCAA single season passing efficiency record (183.3), threw for 3232 yards and tossed 36 touchdowns. Sure King also rushed for over 500 yards, so even in King's huge passing season running the football was required. But it ain't like Rodriguez is running the wishbone, either. My point, there is an opportunity to pass and pass well in Rodriguez's spread system. Methinks Rodriguez is smart enough to put the Pat White plays to rest, and dust off the old Tulane playbook to adjust to his personnel.
3. Strong defense: New DC Scott Shafer will have plenty to work with talent and experience, wise. The Wolverines return 7 starters from a defense that was 24th in the nation and 3rd in the Big 10 in Total Defense. The Wolverines were particularly strong against the pass (8th nationally in pass defense, 2nd in Big 10). They return a strong secondary, led by 5th year senior CB Morgan Trent and 2007 Freshman All American CB Donovan Warren. Although run defense was the Wolverines achilles heel, expect an improved D Line to be strong, led by Second Team All Big 1o senior tackle Terrance Taylor and 5th year senior DT Will Johnson. Junior DE Brandon Graham (8.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles in 2007) and 5th year senior DE Tim Jamison (5.5 sacks in 2007) make up a formidable duo on the edge. The linebacking core is the weakest link, but even it returns 5 lettermen. Even Ray Guy Award candidate punter Zoltan Mesko returns, to help the defense with field position. If they stay healthy, Michigan will have the best defense in the Big 10 not in Columbus, OH.
I'm counting on these three things to carry the team until an offense returning only three starters can find its niche. Despite the lack of experience on offense, there are some pieces. Junior running backs Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown have the talent and speed to excel in a spread offense. Junior WR Greg Matthews (39, 366 YDs, 3 TDs) appears ready to step up after being in the shadows of Adrian Arrington and Mario Manningham. Sophomore Stephen Schilling, a Freshman All American in 2007, appears to be the next great Wolverine lineman. So whoever wins the quarterbacking job won't be working with a bare cupboard. He'll have a few weapons aroung him that should make life a little easier.
With all this said, I expect the Wolverine's 2008 season to go something like this.
UTAH - I expect the Wolverine D to carry an offense that will find a way to make just enough plays in it's home opener. 24-20, W
MIAMI OH - Expect the offense to play better after getting it's feet wet. 31-13, W
@ Notre Dame - I ain't buying the hype that Notre Dame has improved that much. I mean really, did you see how much they sucked last year? It wasn't even respectable "there is hope at the end of the tunnel" suckiness, it was flat out "why are you guys even playing" suckiness. Michigan eeks out a road win. 17-14, W
WISCONSIN - Wisky is simply better, expect some struggles. 13-28, L
ILLINOIS - Back to back home losses will end the honeymoon from the 3-0 start. 20-34, L
TOLEDO - Michigan rolls and we see some signs of the scoring you expect from a spread offense. 42-17, W
@ Penn State - And all that "O" we just saw the previous week won't fare so well against the Wolverine's first taste of a quality road opponent. 14-24, L
MICHIGAN STATE - The Wolverines handle Sparty at home (had this been on the road I'd be on the other side of this). 24-20, W
@ Purdue - By this point in the season, Purdue will be playing like Purdue again. 35-20, W
@ Minnesota - The Little Brown Jug will stay in Ann Arbor. 30-20, W
NORTHWESTERN - Dub-ya. 41-17, W
@ Ohio State - New coach, same result (for now anyway): Michigan will be on the wrong side of this one. 21-38, L
So there you have it, 8-4 and 4-4 in the Big 10. The streak lives on....
Now that all the off field drama is behind us, it's time to start thinking about how well UM will fare in 2008. Michigan holds the current mark for consecutive bowl appearances. They are at 33 straight bowl appearances, and Michigan fans hope it doesn't end anytime soon. So will it? Nope, the streak won't end. Expect Michigan to be playing in December, regardless of the changes Rodriguez will bring to the table. I have few ideas why UM will fare well in 2008.
1. New blood: Lloyd Carr's time at Michigan was up, and truthfully it was probably up 3 years ago. But it really is not just about Lloyd Carr, after all he won an NC at Michigan in 1997 and won at least a share of the Big 10 title, five times. His record in his 13 seasons was 121-40 (.751), so it isn't like Lloyd was a flop. He was just a Michigan man, and Michigan needed to get away from that mold. Programs that refuse to break the mold tend to get stale. There is a fine line between keeping tradition alive, and refusing to evolve. Michigan was on the wrong side of that line, and the program needed to be shook up. Enter Rodriguez. New ideas, attitude, and renewed since of change is exactly what Michigan needed.
2. Shaun King: Everybody keeps talking about how Rodriguez's spread offense is a bad for the Michigan quarterbacks. Apparently it will be such a bad fit, Ryan Mallet transferred to Arkansas before even giving it a chance. Rodriguez needs a mobile QB to make his system work, I keep hearing. But I recall in 1998 a guy named Shaun King ran the spread under Rich Rodriguez, when the coach was the OC at Tulane. In1998, King set NCAA single season passing efficiency record (183.3), threw for 3232 yards and tossed 36 touchdowns. Sure King also rushed for over 500 yards, so even in King's huge passing season running the football was required. But it ain't like Rodriguez is running the wishbone, either. My point, there is an opportunity to pass and pass well in Rodriguez's spread system. Methinks Rodriguez is smart enough to put the Pat White plays to rest, and dust off the old Tulane playbook to adjust to his personnel.
3. Strong defense: New DC Scott Shafer will have plenty to work with talent and experience, wise. The Wolverines return 7 starters from a defense that was 24th in the nation and 3rd in the Big 10 in Total Defense. The Wolverines were particularly strong against the pass (8th nationally in pass defense, 2nd in Big 10). They return a strong secondary, led by 5th year senior CB Morgan Trent and 2007 Freshman All American CB Donovan Warren. Although run defense was the Wolverines achilles heel, expect an improved D Line to be strong, led by Second Team All Big 1o senior tackle Terrance Taylor and 5th year senior DT Will Johnson. Junior DE Brandon Graham (8.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles in 2007) and 5th year senior DE Tim Jamison (5.5 sacks in 2007) make up a formidable duo on the edge. The linebacking core is the weakest link, but even it returns 5 lettermen. Even Ray Guy Award candidate punter Zoltan Mesko returns, to help the defense with field position. If they stay healthy, Michigan will have the best defense in the Big 10 not in Columbus, OH.
I'm counting on these three things to carry the team until an offense returning only three starters can find its niche. Despite the lack of experience on offense, there are some pieces. Junior running backs Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown have the talent and speed to excel in a spread offense. Junior WR Greg Matthews (39, 366 YDs, 3 TDs) appears ready to step up after being in the shadows of Adrian Arrington and Mario Manningham. Sophomore Stephen Schilling, a Freshman All American in 2007, appears to be the next great Wolverine lineman. So whoever wins the quarterbacking job won't be working with a bare cupboard. He'll have a few weapons aroung him that should make life a little easier.
With all this said, I expect the Wolverine's 2008 season to go something like this.
UTAH - I expect the Wolverine D to carry an offense that will find a way to make just enough plays in it's home opener. 24-20, W
MIAMI OH - Expect the offense to play better after getting it's feet wet. 31-13, W
@ Notre Dame - I ain't buying the hype that Notre Dame has improved that much. I mean really, did you see how much they sucked last year? It wasn't even respectable "there is hope at the end of the tunnel" suckiness, it was flat out "why are you guys even playing" suckiness. Michigan eeks out a road win. 17-14, W
WISCONSIN - Wisky is simply better, expect some struggles. 13-28, L
ILLINOIS - Back to back home losses will end the honeymoon from the 3-0 start. 20-34, L
TOLEDO - Michigan rolls and we see some signs of the scoring you expect from a spread offense. 42-17, W
@ Penn State - And all that "O" we just saw the previous week won't fare so well against the Wolverine's first taste of a quality road opponent. 14-24, L
MICHIGAN STATE - The Wolverines handle Sparty at home (had this been on the road I'd be on the other side of this). 24-20, W
@ Purdue - By this point in the season, Purdue will be playing like Purdue again. 35-20, W
@ Minnesota - The Little Brown Jug will stay in Ann Arbor. 30-20, W
NORTHWESTERN - Dub-ya. 41-17, W
@ Ohio State - New coach, same result (for now anyway): Michigan will be on the wrong side of this one. 21-38, L
So there you have it, 8-4 and 4-4 in the Big 10. The streak lives on....
Monday, July 28, 2008
Joe Pa losing his grip?
I personally have never cared too much about the whole "Is Joe Paterno too old?" debate that has dominated message boards, water coolers, and bar room talk of college football fans not even associated with Penn State. Frankly, Penn State can do whatever they want with the guy as far as I'm concerned. But his recent interview on ESPN's Outside the Lines got me thinking maybe his time has passed. It isn't so much his players have been in a lot of trouble lately (although the numbers since 2002 are staggering). Sure since 2002 46 Penn State football players have faced 163 criminal charges, according to an ESPN analysis of Pennsylvania court records and reports. Twenty-seven players have been convicted of or have pleaded guilty to a combined 45 counts*. But hey we all hit a rough patch, right? What got me was his answers in the interview. Such gems as "They're very aggressive kids or they wouldn't be guys who can compete in front of 110,000 people." Gee, I guess somebody should tell Northwestern to get a little more crunk. A few terroristic threats and they too can achieve middle of the road Big 10 team status. Shouldn't we all aim so high. I also found it interesting he referred to this as a "witch hunt", just completely blowing this off as is ESPN has nothing better to do. Most troubling was the accusation that Joe Pa and/or somebody from the athletic department stepped in and helped get the kids out of trouble.
But hey, ridiculous excuses aside, it just seemed Joe Pa was not concerned. Watching the interview reminded of 60 year old parent who had an "accident" late in life and is stuck raising their 12 year old kid. We all grew up with somebody whose parent-to-child age ratio was a bit out of whack. And didn't it always seem their kid was a prick? I mean seriously, at that age in life, parents are just too old to put up with Little Johnny's crap and are thinking about retiring to Florida as soon as Little Johnny turns 18 and Little Johnny knows this; and in turn Little Johnny is generally a spoiled prick. That's what I think is happening at Penn State. Joe Pa just doesn't have the energy to police all these "aggressive" guys like he used to. And it doesn't help that these kids are getting slaps on the wrist as punishments. I mean really, suspended for summer school? Damn, no sociology for you this summer young man! Oh, but you can still practice. Take that!
Now don't get me wrong, I understand a coach can't keep his eye on 95 kids at once. There is definitely some self accountability lacking. But if the kids realize Joe Pa just doesn't want to deal with any of this, as his actions in the interview suggested, they aren't exactly going to fall in line, either. And if he doesn't want to deal with the types of things head coaches have to deal with, and thinks he can just live in a fantasy world coaching until he drops, he does need to step down. Do himself, Penn State, and these players a favor. Because getting punishments reduced, claiming everybody is just out to get you, and acting like nothing is wrong, isn't helping anybody.
But hey, ridiculous excuses aside, it just seemed Joe Pa was not concerned. Watching the interview reminded of 60 year old parent who had an "accident" late in life and is stuck raising their 12 year old kid. We all grew up with somebody whose parent-to-child age ratio was a bit out of whack. And didn't it always seem their kid was a prick? I mean seriously, at that age in life, parents are just too old to put up with Little Johnny's crap and are thinking about retiring to Florida as soon as Little Johnny turns 18 and Little Johnny knows this; and in turn Little Johnny is generally a spoiled prick. That's what I think is happening at Penn State. Joe Pa just doesn't have the energy to police all these "aggressive" guys like he used to. And it doesn't help that these kids are getting slaps on the wrist as punishments. I mean really, suspended for summer school? Damn, no sociology for you this summer young man! Oh, but you can still practice. Take that!
Now don't get me wrong, I understand a coach can't keep his eye on 95 kids at once. There is definitely some self accountability lacking. But if the kids realize Joe Pa just doesn't want to deal with any of this, as his actions in the interview suggested, they aren't exactly going to fall in line, either. And if he doesn't want to deal with the types of things head coaches have to deal with, and thinks he can just live in a fantasy world coaching until he drops, he does need to step down. Do himself, Penn State, and these players a favor. Because getting punishments reduced, claiming everybody is just out to get you, and acting like nothing is wrong, isn't helping anybody.
Approx. 32 days and counting.....
College Football is almost here. And well, in about a week teams will start practicing again, so it will BE here!!! Woo-hoo!!! How did we make it through yet another spring and summer?!?!?!?! Well, we did and we're back for year two at CFB Paradise. Year one was our first year blogging, and we are looking to get better in year two.
I guess for starters, let's see if we did what we said we'd do: Be just as accurate as the "experts" (such as Desmond Howard, for example). Last June, I posted my pre-season top 10. Like pretty much everybody, I never saw a 2 loss team winning he BCS championship, much less even getting to the game. Either way, I was a helluva lot sharper then Desmond has ever been. So once again, I will attempt to tell you who are the top 10 teams in America, and what their record will be (possible conference championship and bowl game not included in predictions), and even who they will lose to. And once again, I only evaluate 10 teams because 25 teams don't have a shot at the NC, so why worry about the other 15?
Drumroll please....
10. Virginia Tech: A team I'm higher on that most people. My motto: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Year in and year out Frank Beamer's ball club is just consistent. In an ACC where they return as champs, and so many questions surrounding the rest of the league, I refuse to hop on the Clemson bandwagon. I'll stick with what I know from I'll get from VaTech: Solid run game, hard hitting D, and "special" special teams. Last year inconsistency at QB hurt the Hokies. But expect Sr. Sean Glennon to be more settled this year, with sophomore Tyrod Taylor supplying an occasional change of pace. The Hokies also return 4 starters on the O-Line. Defensively the Hokies are lead by 2nd team All American CB Victor "Macho" Harris (5 INTs) and DE Orion Martin (10.5 tackles for loss in 2007). The Hokies biggest question marks, ironically enough considering my grand proclamation earlier, will be at the RB position. Expect junior Kenny Lewis (206 yards, 4 TDs in 2007) to be the likely starter. Key games: Home versus Ga Tech, @ Nebraska, @ Florida State. Predicted record: 10-2, losses @ Nebraska, @ Florida State.
9. Florida: The Gators return Heisman winning QB Tim Tebow, whose 57 total touchdowns set a D-1 record (yes I know they changed the name, but I am stubborn in my ways). USC transfer Emmanuel Moody and his 5.8 yard per carry average is now eligible, so that should help shoulder some of the rushing load Tebow dealt with last year. The always dangerous Percy Harvin returns at receiver (858 yards, 7 TDs, 9.6 yards per carry) and the O-Line returns 8 players from last year's two deep. Basically, the Gators should score a lot of points. But will they stop anybody? In 2007 the Gators were 41st in the nation in total D, and 46th in the nation in points allowed. And what was looking to be a vastly improved unit in 2008, has already seen safety Dorian Munroe and defensive back John Curtis gone for the 2008 season because of serious knee injuries. Linebacker Brandon Spikes, a second team All American in 2007, should anchor the front 7 but the back 4 are hurting badly in experience and depth. A managble schedule should help ease the Gators' pains, however. Key games: @ Tennessee, home versus LSU, Georgia @ Jacksonville. Predicted record: 10-2, losses versus UGA, South Carolina.
8. Georgia: The Bulldogs return vitually intact from last season's 11-2 Sugar Bowl winning teams. Sophomore Knowshon Moreno burst on the scene to the tune of 1334 yards and 14 TDs as a freshman. The defense returns 7 starters, including leading tackler Dannell Ellerbe (93 tackles, 12 for loss) and First Team All SEC DT Gino Atkins. The unit also returns both CBs, juniors Asher Allen (Second team All SEC) and Prince Miller. The reason I am not as high on the Dawgs as most everybody else is beacuse I am not as high on QB Matthew Stafford as most everybody else. I am not sure at what point a career 54.5 completion percentage and a career 26-23 TD/INT ratio makes one a great QB. UGA is alot weaker at this position in my opinion than most think, and the reason they will not meet the lofty #1 rankings many have placed on them. Key games: @ LSU, Florida in Jacksonville, @ Auburn. Predicted record: 10-2, losses @ LSU, @ Auburn
7. Missouri: The Tigers return 15 starters from the best team in school history. They will be lead by Heisman Trophy candidate QB Chase Daniel. The senior threw for over 4000 yards and 33 TDs in 2007. His top target will be sophomore WR Jeremy Maclin, who was the Big XII co-offensive freshman of the year in 2007 and amassed the 5th highest total of all purpose yards in a single season, in NCAA history. Second team All American S Will Moore (8 INTs) and First Team All Big XII LB Sean Weatherspoon (130 tackles) will lead the Tigers on D. Mizzou's biggest concern will be replacing 1,000 yard rusher Tony Temple. A challenging schedule awaits the Tigers, but at least nemsis Oklahoma is not on the slate (barring a Big XII championship game rematch). Key games: Versus Illinois in St. Louis, @ Nebraska, @ Texas, versus Kansas in Kansas City. Predicted record: 10-2, losses @ Nebraska, @ Texas.
6. Texas: I'm also higher on the Horns that alot of people I've talked to. While the Horns do have a tough schedule, I feel they are capable of managing it better than most expect. I'm a big beleiver in strong QB play and the Horns have that. Although junior Colt McCoy tossed 18 INTS during a "sophomore slump" in 2007, he also accounted for 26 TDs (22 passing;4 rushing) and 3303 yards through the air. The Horns also incoporated him in the run game, as he is the team's top returning rusher with 492 yards in 2007. The O-Line should be deeper (and better) this year, led by senior First Team All Big XII selectin Cedric Dockery. The defense returns 6 players that were named All Big 12, lead by first team selection DL Brian Orakpo. And with Quan Cosby returning kicks, the Horns have a real game changer on special teams. If sophomore RB Vondrell McGee (8 TDs in 2007), can become a consistent running threat expect the Horns to be really good. But whether they are really good, or just good, they'll win their usual 10 games. Key games: Home versus Arkansas, versus OU in Dallas, home versus Missouri, @ Texas Tech, @ Kansas. Predicted record: 10-2, losses to OU and @ Kansas..
5. West Virginia: Led by two time Big East Offensive Player of the Year Pat White (my Heisman pick) the Mountaineers will be in the BCS hunt once again. Sophomore RB Noel Devine (8.6 yards per carry) will get even more touches with the departure of Steve Slaton; sucks for the rest of the Big East. The OLine returns First-Team All American Ryan Stanchek and First Team All Big East selection Greg Isdaner. The defense has some rebuilding to do, but top returning tacklers LB Reed Williams and LB Morrty Ivy should steady the unit. The biggest question for the Mountaineers is how the team will adjust to Bill Stewart on a full time basis. Key games: @ Colorado, versus Rutgers, versus Auburn, versus South Florida. Predicted record: 10-2, losses versus Auburn, @ Pitt.
4. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have been to back to back NC games, and I expect them to be in BCS mix once again. Though unimpressive at times, QB Todd Boekman did manage to put up a very respectable 2379 yards and 25 touchdowns. At his disposal, Boekman will have his top target Brian Robiskie (935 yards, 11 TDs) returning, along with junior All American RB Chris "Beanie" Wells. In 2007, Wells rushed for over 1600 yards and added 15 TDs. Expect him to be in New York this December. All American tackle Alex Boone will anchor an always stout Buckeye line. Statistically, Ohio State had the best defense in the nation last year. The unit returns First Team All American LB James Laurenatis. But Buckeye nation is just as happy, if not happier, that CB Malcolm Jenkins chose to return to school. Jenkins will anchor a secondary that only surrendered 150 yards per game in the air in 2007. If the Bucks can get by USC, a trip to Miami is very likely. Key games: @ USC, @ Wisconsin, @ Illinois, versus Michigan). Predicted record: 10-2, losses @ USC, @ Wisconsin.
3. Auburn: I'm giving the War Eag...err, Tigers..a lot of love. I think they will ultimately win the SEC West (they get LSU @ home), and their East slate is favorable (Tennessee and UGA @ home, @ Vanderbilt). With that said, considering my fetish for strong QB play, the Tigers do not have that and that may cost them a few games in the always tough SEC. But I like what I have seen and heard, so far. Sophomore Kodi Burns will be the man, and with the hire of new OC Tony Franklin, the Tigers plan to run a spread attack to take advantage of Burns' skills. If that pans out, Auburn will be awfully good. The offensive line returns all 5 starters from a year ago, led by Tyronne Green; and a trio of talented rushers return to the Plains. Junior Ben Tate led the team with 903 yards rushing and 8 TDs in 2007, but the Tigers also boast senior Brad Lester (530 yards) and sophomore WR Mario Fannin (5.3 yards per carry, 5 TDs). Burns will also have a big time target in Rod Smith (52 catches, 5 TDs) to help ease him in. The defense returns DE Antonio Coleman (8.5 sacks) and the entire 2 deep at LB. Safety Zac Ethridge (65 tacles, 5 PBUs) leads 3 returning starters in the secondary. Key games: Home versus LSU, @ West Virginia, Home versus Georgia, @ Alabama). Predicted record: 11-1 , loss @ Ole Miss.
2. Southern California: Defensively, USC is as good as anybody in the country. Linebackers Brian Cushing and Rey Maualuga are the best duo in America. Throw in safeties Taylor Mays and Kevin Ellison and you have the best back 7 in America. The front 4 are in a bit of transition, but All Pac 10 D Lineman Everson Griffin and Fili Maola should ease the loss on All American Cedric Ellis. Offensively, the Trojans struggled through injury early in the 2007 season but found their stride later in the year. The problem: They struggled while John David Booty was out and found their stride once he returned. With Booty gone the QB controls will go back to junior Mark Sanchez, who started 3 games last year in Booty's absence. Sanchez showed flashes, but was turnover prone. Second team All American Jeff Byers will provide leadership for a young O-Line that will clear the way for Stefon Johnson (6.9 yards per carry) and sophomore Joe McKnight. WRs Patrick Turner (569 yards, 3 TDs) and Vidal Hazelton (50 receptions, 4 TDs) will lead the receiving corps. The Trojans schedule sets up very well for them, with their toughest road test @ Oregon State. Key games: Versus USC, @ Oregon State, versus Arizona State, @ UCLA. Predicted record: 12-0
1. Oklahoma: Strong QB play? Check. Strong running game? Check. Strong O and D Line play? Check. Throw in an experienced secondary and LB core, and you have the ingredients for a BCS title contender. On paper, the Sooners have more talent than anybody in the Big XII and can hold their own against anybody in the country. Sophomore QB Sam Bradford returns after a 36TD/8 INT season in which he led the nation in passing efficiency. Sophomore RB DeMarco Murray (764 yards, 13 TDs) showed his explosiveness before a late season knee injury, and junior RB Chris Brown (611 yards, 9 TDs) returns after a 3rd team All Big XII campaign. Protecting Bradford and opening holes for Murray and company will be an experieced O-Line that returns 7 players from the 2 deep, and All Americans Duke Robinson and Phil Loadholt. The Sooners D Line returns Big XII sack leader Auston English (9.5 sacks) and All Big XII tackles Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus Granger. Third Team All American S Nic Harris will lead the Sooners secondary. Incosistency on the road was OUs achilles heel in 2007, and with the annual Red River Shootout being in Dallas the Sooners actually play more conference games away from Norman than in Norman (4 road, 3 home, 1 neutral). If the Sooners find their road mojo, they'll be in Miami in January. Key games: Versus Texas in Dallas, versus Kansas, @ Texas A&M, versus Texas Tech. Predicted record: 12-0
So there you have it. A few safe picks, a few "get out of here" picks. Let the trash talk begin.
Predicted 2008 Conference Champions:
ACC: Virginia Tech
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Ohio State
Big Twelve: Oklahoma
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Auburn
4 teams on the cusp of the top 10: LSU, Wisconsin, Kansas, BYU
4 teams not in anybody's top 25 to watch: Nebraska, GaTech, UCLA, Colorado
4 teams getting way too much love: Clemson, Illinois, Texas Tech, Arizona State
I guess for starters, let's see if we did what we said we'd do: Be just as accurate as the "experts" (such as Desmond Howard, for example). Last June, I posted my pre-season top 10. Like pretty much everybody, I never saw a 2 loss team winning he BCS championship, much less even getting to the game. Either way, I was a helluva lot sharper then Desmond has ever been. So once again, I will attempt to tell you who are the top 10 teams in America, and what their record will be (possible conference championship and bowl game not included in predictions), and even who they will lose to. And once again, I only evaluate 10 teams because 25 teams don't have a shot at the NC, so why worry about the other 15?
Drumroll please....
10. Virginia Tech: A team I'm higher on that most people. My motto: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Year in and year out Frank Beamer's ball club is just consistent. In an ACC where they return as champs, and so many questions surrounding the rest of the league, I refuse to hop on the Clemson bandwagon. I'll stick with what I know from I'll get from VaTech: Solid run game, hard hitting D, and "special" special teams. Last year inconsistency at QB hurt the Hokies. But expect Sr. Sean Glennon to be more settled this year, with sophomore Tyrod Taylor supplying an occasional change of pace. The Hokies also return 4 starters on the O-Line. Defensively the Hokies are lead by 2nd team All American CB Victor "Macho" Harris (5 INTs) and DE Orion Martin (10.5 tackles for loss in 2007). The Hokies biggest question marks, ironically enough considering my grand proclamation earlier, will be at the RB position. Expect junior Kenny Lewis (206 yards, 4 TDs in 2007) to be the likely starter. Key games: Home versus Ga Tech, @ Nebraska, @ Florida State. Predicted record: 10-2, losses @ Nebraska, @ Florida State.
9. Florida: The Gators return Heisman winning QB Tim Tebow, whose 57 total touchdowns set a D-1 record (yes I know they changed the name, but I am stubborn in my ways). USC transfer Emmanuel Moody and his 5.8 yard per carry average is now eligible, so that should help shoulder some of the rushing load Tebow dealt with last year. The always dangerous Percy Harvin returns at receiver (858 yards, 7 TDs, 9.6 yards per carry) and the O-Line returns 8 players from last year's two deep. Basically, the Gators should score a lot of points. But will they stop anybody? In 2007 the Gators were 41st in the nation in total D, and 46th in the nation in points allowed. And what was looking to be a vastly improved unit in 2008, has already seen safety Dorian Munroe and defensive back John Curtis gone for the 2008 season because of serious knee injuries. Linebacker Brandon Spikes, a second team All American in 2007, should anchor the front 7 but the back 4 are hurting badly in experience and depth. A managble schedule should help ease the Gators' pains, however. Key games: @ Tennessee, home versus LSU, Georgia @ Jacksonville. Predicted record: 10-2, losses versus UGA, South Carolina.
8. Georgia: The Bulldogs return vitually intact from last season's 11-2 Sugar Bowl winning teams. Sophomore Knowshon Moreno burst on the scene to the tune of 1334 yards and 14 TDs as a freshman. The defense returns 7 starters, including leading tackler Dannell Ellerbe (93 tackles, 12 for loss) and First Team All SEC DT Gino Atkins. The unit also returns both CBs, juniors Asher Allen (Second team All SEC) and Prince Miller. The reason I am not as high on the Dawgs as most everybody else is beacuse I am not as high on QB Matthew Stafford as most everybody else. I am not sure at what point a career 54.5 completion percentage and a career 26-23 TD/INT ratio makes one a great QB. UGA is alot weaker at this position in my opinion than most think, and the reason they will not meet the lofty #1 rankings many have placed on them. Key games: @ LSU, Florida in Jacksonville, @ Auburn. Predicted record: 10-2, losses @ LSU, @ Auburn
7. Missouri: The Tigers return 15 starters from the best team in school history. They will be lead by Heisman Trophy candidate QB Chase Daniel. The senior threw for over 4000 yards and 33 TDs in 2007. His top target will be sophomore WR Jeremy Maclin, who was the Big XII co-offensive freshman of the year in 2007 and amassed the 5th highest total of all purpose yards in a single season, in NCAA history. Second team All American S Will Moore (8 INTs) and First Team All Big XII LB Sean Weatherspoon (130 tackles) will lead the Tigers on D. Mizzou's biggest concern will be replacing 1,000 yard rusher Tony Temple. A challenging schedule awaits the Tigers, but at least nemsis Oklahoma is not on the slate (barring a Big XII championship game rematch). Key games: Versus Illinois in St. Louis, @ Nebraska, @ Texas, versus Kansas in Kansas City. Predicted record: 10-2, losses @ Nebraska, @ Texas.
6. Texas: I'm also higher on the Horns that alot of people I've talked to. While the Horns do have a tough schedule, I feel they are capable of managing it better than most expect. I'm a big beleiver in strong QB play and the Horns have that. Although junior Colt McCoy tossed 18 INTS during a "sophomore slump" in 2007, he also accounted for 26 TDs (22 passing;4 rushing) and 3303 yards through the air. The Horns also incoporated him in the run game, as he is the team's top returning rusher with 492 yards in 2007. The O-Line should be deeper (and better) this year, led by senior First Team All Big XII selectin Cedric Dockery. The defense returns 6 players that were named All Big 12, lead by first team selection DL Brian Orakpo. And with Quan Cosby returning kicks, the Horns have a real game changer on special teams. If sophomore RB Vondrell McGee (8 TDs in 2007), can become a consistent running threat expect the Horns to be really good. But whether they are really good, or just good, they'll win their usual 10 games. Key games: Home versus Arkansas, versus OU in Dallas, home versus Missouri, @ Texas Tech, @ Kansas. Predicted record: 10-2, losses to OU and @ Kansas..
5. West Virginia: Led by two time Big East Offensive Player of the Year Pat White (my Heisman pick) the Mountaineers will be in the BCS hunt once again. Sophomore RB Noel Devine (8.6 yards per carry) will get even more touches with the departure of Steve Slaton; sucks for the rest of the Big East. The OLine returns First-Team All American Ryan Stanchek and First Team All Big East selection Greg Isdaner. The defense has some rebuilding to do, but top returning tacklers LB Reed Williams and LB Morrty Ivy should steady the unit. The biggest question for the Mountaineers is how the team will adjust to Bill Stewart on a full time basis. Key games: @ Colorado, versus Rutgers, versus Auburn, versus South Florida. Predicted record: 10-2, losses versus Auburn, @ Pitt.
4. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have been to back to back NC games, and I expect them to be in BCS mix once again. Though unimpressive at times, QB Todd Boekman did manage to put up a very respectable 2379 yards and 25 touchdowns. At his disposal, Boekman will have his top target Brian Robiskie (935 yards, 11 TDs) returning, along with junior All American RB Chris "Beanie" Wells. In 2007, Wells rushed for over 1600 yards and added 15 TDs. Expect him to be in New York this December. All American tackle Alex Boone will anchor an always stout Buckeye line. Statistically, Ohio State had the best defense in the nation last year. The unit returns First Team All American LB James Laurenatis. But Buckeye nation is just as happy, if not happier, that CB Malcolm Jenkins chose to return to school. Jenkins will anchor a secondary that only surrendered 150 yards per game in the air in 2007. If the Bucks can get by USC, a trip to Miami is very likely. Key games: @ USC, @ Wisconsin, @ Illinois, versus Michigan). Predicted record: 10-2, losses @ USC, @ Wisconsin.
3. Auburn: I'm giving the War Eag...err, Tigers..a lot of love. I think they will ultimately win the SEC West (they get LSU @ home), and their East slate is favorable (Tennessee and UGA @ home, @ Vanderbilt). With that said, considering my fetish for strong QB play, the Tigers do not have that and that may cost them a few games in the always tough SEC. But I like what I have seen and heard, so far. Sophomore Kodi Burns will be the man, and with the hire of new OC Tony Franklin, the Tigers plan to run a spread attack to take advantage of Burns' skills. If that pans out, Auburn will be awfully good. The offensive line returns all 5 starters from a year ago, led by Tyronne Green; and a trio of talented rushers return to the Plains. Junior Ben Tate led the team with 903 yards rushing and 8 TDs in 2007, but the Tigers also boast senior Brad Lester (530 yards) and sophomore WR Mario Fannin (5.3 yards per carry, 5 TDs). Burns will also have a big time target in Rod Smith (52 catches, 5 TDs) to help ease him in. The defense returns DE Antonio Coleman (8.5 sacks) and the entire 2 deep at LB. Safety Zac Ethridge (65 tacles, 5 PBUs) leads 3 returning starters in the secondary. Key games: Home versus LSU, @ West Virginia, Home versus Georgia, @ Alabama). Predicted record: 11-1 , loss @ Ole Miss.
2. Southern California: Defensively, USC is as good as anybody in the country. Linebackers Brian Cushing and Rey Maualuga are the best duo in America. Throw in safeties Taylor Mays and Kevin Ellison and you have the best back 7 in America. The front 4 are in a bit of transition, but All Pac 10 D Lineman Everson Griffin and Fili Maola should ease the loss on All American Cedric Ellis. Offensively, the Trojans struggled through injury early in the 2007 season but found their stride later in the year. The problem: They struggled while John David Booty was out and found their stride once he returned. With Booty gone the QB controls will go back to junior Mark Sanchez, who started 3 games last year in Booty's absence. Sanchez showed flashes, but was turnover prone. Second team All American Jeff Byers will provide leadership for a young O-Line that will clear the way for Stefon Johnson (6.9 yards per carry) and sophomore Joe McKnight. WRs Patrick Turner (569 yards, 3 TDs) and Vidal Hazelton (50 receptions, 4 TDs) will lead the receiving corps. The Trojans schedule sets up very well for them, with their toughest road test @ Oregon State. Key games: Versus USC, @ Oregon State, versus Arizona State, @ UCLA. Predicted record: 12-0
1. Oklahoma: Strong QB play? Check. Strong running game? Check. Strong O and D Line play? Check. Throw in an experienced secondary and LB core, and you have the ingredients for a BCS title contender. On paper, the Sooners have more talent than anybody in the Big XII and can hold their own against anybody in the country. Sophomore QB Sam Bradford returns after a 36TD/8 INT season in which he led the nation in passing efficiency. Sophomore RB DeMarco Murray (764 yards, 13 TDs) showed his explosiveness before a late season knee injury, and junior RB Chris Brown (611 yards, 9 TDs) returns after a 3rd team All Big XII campaign. Protecting Bradford and opening holes for Murray and company will be an experieced O-Line that returns 7 players from the 2 deep, and All Americans Duke Robinson and Phil Loadholt. The Sooners D Line returns Big XII sack leader Auston English (9.5 sacks) and All Big XII tackles Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus Granger. Third Team All American S Nic Harris will lead the Sooners secondary. Incosistency on the road was OUs achilles heel in 2007, and with the annual Red River Shootout being in Dallas the Sooners actually play more conference games away from Norman than in Norman (4 road, 3 home, 1 neutral). If the Sooners find their road mojo, they'll be in Miami in January. Key games: Versus Texas in Dallas, versus Kansas, @ Texas A&M, versus Texas Tech. Predicted record: 12-0
So there you have it. A few safe picks, a few "get out of here" picks. Let the trash talk begin.
Predicted 2008 Conference Champions:
ACC: Virginia Tech
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Ohio State
Big Twelve: Oklahoma
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Auburn
4 teams on the cusp of the top 10: LSU, Wisconsin, Kansas, BYU
4 teams not in anybody's top 25 to watch: Nebraska, GaTech, UCLA, Colorado
4 teams getting way too much love: Clemson, Illinois, Texas Tech, Arizona State
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