Monday, July 28, 2008

Approx. 32 days and counting.....

College Football is almost here. And well, in about a week teams will start practicing again, so it will BE here!!! Woo-hoo!!! How did we make it through yet another spring and summer?!?!?!?! Well, we did and we're back for year two at CFB Paradise. Year one was our first year blogging, and we are looking to get better in year two.

I guess for starters, let's see if we did what we said we'd do: Be just as accurate as the "experts" (such as Desmond Howard, for example). Last June, I posted my pre-season top 10. Like pretty much everybody, I never saw a 2 loss team winning he BCS championship, much less even getting to the game. Either way, I was a helluva lot sharper then Desmond has ever been. So once again, I will attempt to tell you who are the top 10 teams in America, and what their record will be (possible conference championship and bowl game not included in predictions), and even who they will lose to. And once again, I only evaluate 10 teams because 25 teams don't have a shot at the NC, so why worry about the other 15?

Drumroll please....

10. Virginia Tech: A team I'm higher on that most people. My motto: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Year in and year out Frank Beamer's ball club is just consistent. In an ACC where they return as champs, and so many questions surrounding the rest of the league, I refuse to hop on the Clemson bandwagon. I'll stick with what I know from I'll get from VaTech: Solid run game, hard hitting D, and "special" special teams. Last year inconsistency at QB hurt the Hokies. But expect Sr. Sean Glennon to be more settled this year, with sophomore Tyrod Taylor supplying an occasional change of pace. The Hokies also return 4 starters on the O-Line. Defensively the Hokies are lead by 2nd team All American CB Victor "Macho" Harris (5 INTs) and DE Orion Martin (10.5 tackles for loss in 2007). The Hokies biggest question marks, ironically enough considering my grand proclamation earlier, will be at the RB position. Expect junior Kenny Lewis (206 yards, 4 TDs in 2007) to be the likely starter. Key games: Home versus Ga Tech, @ Nebraska, @ Florida State. Predicted record: 10-2, losses @ Nebraska, @ Florida State.

9. Florida: The Gators return Heisman winning QB Tim Tebow, whose 57 total touchdowns set a D-1 record (yes I know they changed the name, but I am stubborn in my ways). USC transfer Emmanuel Moody and his 5.8 yard per carry average is now eligible, so that should help shoulder some of the rushing load Tebow dealt with last year. The always dangerous Percy Harvin returns at receiver (858 yards, 7 TDs, 9.6 yards per carry) and the O-Line returns 8 players from last year's two deep. Basically, the Gators should score a lot of points. But will they stop anybody? In 2007 the Gators were 41st in the nation in total D, and 46th in the nation in points allowed. And what was looking to be a vastly improved unit in 2008, has already seen safety Dorian Munroe and defensive back John Curtis gone for the 2008 season because of serious knee injuries. Linebacker Brandon Spikes, a second team All American in 2007, should anchor the front 7 but the back 4 are hurting badly in experience and depth. A managble schedule should help ease the Gators' pains, however. Key games: @ Tennessee, home versus LSU, Georgia @ Jacksonville. Predicted record: 10-2, losses versus UGA, South Carolina.

8. Georgia: The Bulldogs return vitually intact from last season's 11-2 Sugar Bowl winning teams. Sophomore Knowshon Moreno burst on the scene to the tune of 1334 yards and 14 TDs as a freshman. The defense returns 7 starters, including leading tackler Dannell Ellerbe (93 tackles, 12 for loss) and First Team All SEC DT Gino Atkins. The unit also returns both CBs, juniors Asher Allen (Second team All SEC) and Prince Miller. The reason I am not as high on the Dawgs as most everybody else is beacuse I am not as high on QB Matthew Stafford as most everybody else. I am not sure at what point a career 54.5 completion percentage and a career 26-23 TD/INT ratio makes one a great QB. UGA is alot weaker at this position in my opinion than most think, and the reason they will not meet the lofty #1 rankings many have placed on them. Key games: @ LSU, Florida in Jacksonville, @ Auburn. Predicted record: 10-2, losses @ LSU, @ Auburn

7. Missouri: The Tigers return 15 starters from the best team in school history. They will be lead by Heisman Trophy candidate QB Chase Daniel. The senior threw for over 4000 yards and 33 TDs in 2007. His top target will be sophomore WR Jeremy Maclin, who was the Big XII co-offensive freshman of the year in 2007 and amassed the 5th highest total of all purpose yards in a single season, in NCAA history. Second team All American S Will Moore (8 INTs) and First Team All Big XII LB Sean Weatherspoon (130 tackles) will lead the Tigers on D. Mizzou's biggest concern will be replacing 1,000 yard rusher Tony Temple. A challenging schedule awaits the Tigers, but at least nemsis Oklahoma is not on the slate (barring a Big XII championship game rematch). Key games: Versus Illinois in St. Louis, @ Nebraska, @ Texas, versus Kansas in Kansas City. Predicted record: 10-2, losses @ Nebraska, @ Texas.

6. Texas: I'm also higher on the Horns that alot of people I've talked to. While the Horns do have a tough schedule, I feel they are capable of managing it better than most expect. I'm a big beleiver in strong QB play and the Horns have that. Although junior Colt McCoy tossed 18 INTS during a "sophomore slump" in 2007, he also accounted for 26 TDs (22 passing;4 rushing) and 3303 yards through the air. The Horns also incoporated him in the run game, as he is the team's top returning rusher with 492 yards in 2007. The O-Line should be deeper (and better) this year, led by senior First Team All Big XII selectin Cedric Dockery. The defense returns 6 players that were named All Big 12, lead by first team selection DL Brian Orakpo. And with Quan Cosby returning kicks, the Horns have a real game changer on special teams. If sophomore RB Vondrell McGee (8 TDs in 2007), can become a consistent running threat expect the Horns to be really good. But whether they are really good, or just good, they'll win their usual 10 games. Key games: Home versus Arkansas, versus OU in Dallas, home versus Missouri, @ Texas Tech, @ Kansas. Predicted record: 10-2, losses to OU and @ Kansas..

5. West Virginia: Led by two time Big East Offensive Player of the Year Pat White (my Heisman pick) the Mountaineers will be in the BCS hunt once again. Sophomore RB Noel Devine (8.6 yards per carry) will get even more touches with the departure of Steve Slaton; sucks for the rest of the Big East. The OLine returns First-Team All American Ryan Stanchek and First Team All Big East selection Greg Isdaner. The defense has some rebuilding to do, but top returning tacklers LB Reed Williams and LB Morrty Ivy should steady the unit. The biggest question for the Mountaineers is how the team will adjust to Bill Stewart on a full time basis. Key games: @ Colorado, versus Rutgers, versus Auburn, versus South Florida. Predicted record: 10-2, losses versus Auburn, @ Pitt.

4. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have been to back to back NC games, and I expect them to be in BCS mix once again. Though unimpressive at times, QB Todd Boekman did manage to put up a very respectable 2379 yards and 25 touchdowns. At his disposal, Boekman will have his top target Brian Robiskie (935 yards, 11 TDs) returning, along with junior All American RB Chris "Beanie" Wells. In 2007, Wells rushed for over 1600 yards and added 15 TDs. Expect him to be in New York this December. All American tackle Alex Boone will anchor an always stout Buckeye line. Statistically, Ohio State had the best defense in the nation last year. The unit returns First Team All American LB James Laurenatis. But Buckeye nation is just as happy, if not happier, that CB Malcolm Jenkins chose to return to school. Jenkins will anchor a secondary that only surrendered 150 yards per game in the air in 2007. If the Bucks can get by USC, a trip to Miami is very likely. Key games: @ USC, @ Wisconsin, @ Illinois, versus Michigan). Predicted record: 10-2, losses @ USC, @ Wisconsin.

3. Auburn: I'm giving the War Eag...err, Tigers..a lot of love. I think they will ultimately win the SEC West (they get LSU @ home), and their East slate is favorable (Tennessee and UGA @ home, @ Vanderbilt). With that said, considering my fetish for strong QB play, the Tigers do not have that and that may cost them a few games in the always tough SEC. But I like what I have seen and heard, so far. Sophomore Kodi Burns will be the man, and with the hire of new OC Tony Franklin, the Tigers plan to run a spread attack to take advantage of Burns' skills. If that pans out, Auburn will be awfully good. The offensive line returns all 5 starters from a year ago, led by Tyronne Green; and a trio of talented rushers return to the Plains. Junior Ben Tate led the team with 903 yards rushing and 8 TDs in 2007, but the Tigers also boast senior Brad Lester (530 yards) and sophomore WR Mario Fannin (5.3 yards per carry, 5 TDs). Burns will also have a big time target in Rod Smith (52 catches, 5 TDs) to help ease him in. The defense returns DE Antonio Coleman (8.5 sacks) and the entire 2 deep at LB. Safety Zac Ethridge (65 tacles, 5 PBUs) leads 3 returning starters in the secondary. Key games: Home versus LSU, @ West Virginia, Home versus Georgia, @ Alabama). Predicted record: 11-1 , loss @ Ole Miss.

2. Southern California: Defensively, USC is as good as anybody in the country. Linebackers Brian Cushing and Rey Maualuga are the best duo in America. Throw in safeties Taylor Mays and Kevin Ellison and you have the best back 7 in America. The front 4 are in a bit of transition, but All Pac 10 D Lineman Everson Griffin and Fili Maola should ease the loss on All American Cedric Ellis. Offensively, the Trojans struggled through injury early in the 2007 season but found their stride later in the year. The problem: They struggled while John David Booty was out and found their stride once he returned. With Booty gone the QB controls will go back to junior Mark Sanchez, who started 3 games last year in Booty's absence. Sanchez showed flashes, but was turnover prone. Second team All American Jeff Byers will provide leadership for a young O-Line that will clear the way for Stefon Johnson (6.9 yards per carry) and sophomore Joe McKnight. WRs Patrick Turner (569 yards, 3 TDs) and Vidal Hazelton (50 receptions, 4 TDs) will lead the receiving corps. The Trojans schedule sets up very well for them, with their toughest road test @ Oregon State. Key games: Versus USC, @ Oregon State, versus Arizona State, @ UCLA. Predicted record: 12-0

1. Oklahoma: Strong QB play? Check. Strong running game? Check. Strong O and D Line play? Check. Throw in an experienced secondary and LB core, and you have the ingredients for a BCS title contender. On paper, the Sooners have more talent than anybody in the Big XII and can hold their own against anybody in the country. Sophomore QB Sam Bradford returns after a 36TD/8 INT season in which he led the nation in passing efficiency. Sophomore RB DeMarco Murray (764 yards, 13 TDs) showed his explosiveness before a late season knee injury, and junior RB Chris Brown (611 yards, 9 TDs) returns after a 3rd team All Big XII campaign. Protecting Bradford and opening holes for Murray and company will be an experieced O-Line that returns 7 players from the 2 deep, and All Americans Duke Robinson and Phil Loadholt. The Sooners D Line returns Big XII sack leader Auston English (9.5 sacks) and All Big XII tackles Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus Granger. Third Team All American S Nic Harris will lead the Sooners secondary. Incosistency on the road was OUs achilles heel in 2007, and with the annual Red River Shootout being in Dallas the Sooners actually play more conference games away from Norman than in Norman (4 road, 3 home, 1 neutral). If the Sooners find their road mojo, they'll be in Miami in January. Key games: Versus Texas in Dallas, versus Kansas, @ Texas A&M, versus Texas Tech. Predicted record: 12-0

So there you have it. A few safe picks, a few "get out of here" picks. Let the trash talk begin.

Predicted 2008 Conference Champions:
ACC: Virginia Tech
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Ohio State
Big Twelve: Oklahoma
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Auburn

4 teams on the cusp of the top 10: LSU, Wisconsin, Kansas, BYU

4 teams not in anybody's top 25 to watch: Nebraska, GaTech, UCLA, Colorado

4 teams getting way too much love: Clemson, Illinois, Texas Tech, Arizona State

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